Thursday, February 21, 2008
37 down - 11 to go
there's a certain satisfaction knowing that Bush has less than 1 year left in office. all of the focus now is on the next president & outside of a FISA extension, there's really no more damage he can do.
Metrics:
Fiscal: It's very obvious now that I did not do a good job creating a SMART metric for deficits. "Deficit: Keep the promise of cutting the deficit in half ($220B)" , but no mention of whether that's anytime during his presidency or at the end. Also, absolute dollars are a poor unit of measure. In hindsight, I should have used % GDP (accepted standard) and specified either the year or made an additional requirement. FY '07 the deficit was below $200B, but next year, the projections are all that it will burst up above $400B or about back to its height under Bush (nominal dollars nor % GDP). By the letter of the law, Bush meets this criterion.
Iraq: The death toll appears to be steady state 30-40 and I would expect it to stay their until the point that we start withdrawing sizable numbers of troops. My actual prediction if Hillary/Obama wins is that ½ the troops will be out within 2 years, but not much more than that.
Wagers: I was quite worried that I would lose my first ever political wager - Hillary winning the nomination. Today, I'd give Obama 3:2 odds that he'll win the nomination, so feeling much better about that prediction. Looks like my statement Now Hillary has snared the nomination months before Iowa, over 1 year before the election itself. Obama has shown his lack of seasoning has proven to be fallacious. Clearly Hillary did not snare the nomination that early and in the GOP, McCain, for all practical purposes, locked up the nomination, a bit after Bush did in '88. I am surprised/impressed that Obama with <4>
Metrics:
Fiscal: It's very obvious now that I did not do a good job creating a SMART metric for deficits. "Deficit: Keep the promise of cutting the deficit in half ($220B)" , but no mention of whether that's anytime during his presidency or at the end. Also, absolute dollars are a poor unit of measure. In hindsight, I should have used % GDP (accepted standard) and specified either the year or made an additional requirement. FY '07 the deficit was below $200B, but next year, the projections are all that it will burst up above $400B or about back to its height under Bush (nominal dollars nor % GDP). By the letter of the law, Bush meets this criterion.
Iraq: The death toll appears to be steady state 30-40 and I would expect it to stay their until the point that we start withdrawing sizable numbers of troops. My actual prediction if Hillary/Obama wins is that ½ the troops will be out within 2 years, but not much more than that.
Wagers: I was quite worried that I would lose my first ever political wager - Hillary winning the nomination. Today, I'd give Obama 3:2 odds that he'll win the nomination, so feeling much better about that prediction. Looks like my statement Now Hillary has snared the nomination months before Iowa, over 1 year before the election itself. Obama has shown his lack of seasoning has proven to be fallacious. Clearly Hillary did not snare the nomination that early and in the GOP, McCain, for all practical purposes, locked up the nomination, a bit after Bush did in '88. I am surprised/impressed that Obama with <4>
Labels: monthly update
Tuesday, February 20, 2007
25 down - 23 to go
Haydel's King Cake is still quite tasty and the coffee & chicory complements it well - that's the positive for Mardi Gras from an uptown New Orleans ex-pat.
Monthly update: Now that the Dem congress has been safely ensconced in power, the pattern for the next two years is easily evident. The Dem congress will push, while the GOP congress obstructs & Bush resists - clearly congress is setting the agenda now.
Trade & the deficit frankly aren't worth updating, but out of obligation - Doha is nowhere to be seen & the deficit will come down to roughly ½ of its peak (% of GDP FY).
While I'd love to see the Congress tomorrow morning cut off funding for a set date sometime this coming summer, I have agree with publius that the cool-it-down approach is the wisest. Part of America's character is to never give up - a strength & also a weakness. In this case a weakness as it's in America and Iraqis best interest for us to leave as soon as possible. Not going to happen while Bush is in office, but if anyone but McCain or Hillary is elected next, then I expect us to be mostly out of Iraq within 9 months of the next inauguration.
Not especially interested in updating my wagers (I should win them all with the possible exception of the anyone but Hillary), so I'll leave the last word for this monthly update to Riverbend:
Let me clear it up for any moron with lingering doubts: It’s worse. It’s over. You lost. You lost the day your tanks rolled into Baghdad to the cheers of your imported, American-trained monkeys. You lost every single family whose home your soldiers violated. You lost every sane, red-blooded Iraqi when the Abu Ghraib pictures came out and verified your atrocities behind prison walls as well as the ones we see in our streets. You lost when you brought murderers, looters, gangsters and militia heads to power and hailed them as Iraq’s first democratic government. You lost when a gruesome execution was dubbed your biggest accomplishment. You lost the respect and reputation you once had. You lost more than 3000 troops. That is what you lost America. I hope the oil, at least, made it worthwhile.
Labels: monthly update
