Saturday, May 11, 2013

Predictions for January 2017

Had friendly facebook argument with old co-worker on what would happen before the end of Obama's term.  My predictions were sort of fun house mirror of his.  Four months old now, but easier for me to track here instead of on Facebook - believe my predictions have held up well for the past ~4 months:

1 The national debt will add roughly $1 trillion/annum.
2. Given how bad the multiple rating agencies were pre-crash, why should we care about them.
3. Gold will breach $1250 per ounce before dropping again.
4. Official unemployment will continue to creep down ever so slowly and go below 7 percent before the next recession.
5. Folks will still be on food stamps.
6. Core inflation will average less than 4% per annum.
7. Top marginal federal tax rates will stay where it is - most recent bill.
8. Gas prices on Avalon will continue exceed $6 per gallon and even hit $8/gallon.
9. capital will have some form of control
10. There will be no food lines in the US.
11. There will be no major terrorist attack will occur on U.S. soil. There will of course be underwear bombers or shoe bombers or LAX shooters or...
12. The U.S. military will be involved throughout the African continent as it already is.
13. There will be NO form of gun confiscation .
14. The National Guard troops will not be sent to several major metropolitan areas to quell rioting.
15. Non-weaponized drones over American cities will become commonplace.
16. Every form of personal communication will be recorded, stored, and processed, with persons of interest having dossiers compiled.
17. Republicans will blame Democrats; Democrats will reciprocate. Nothing will be accomplished, but despite that we'll still muddle through somehow.
18. Hillary Clinton will never become president.
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  • Steve Hogan 2. Only because the market's reaction to the first was the first chink in the armor. Each successive downgrade will be further evidence (as if any is needed) that America can't pay its bills.
    3. Is this a typo, or are you predicting a $450 drop from current prices?
    4. I'm assuming you're using BLS numbers here. Like everything from the government, their assumptions are quite amusing. A more accurate stat would be the labor participation rate. That one is more difficult to fudge.
    5. Cop out.
  • Steve Hogan 6. CPI or Shadow Stats?
    7. Top marginal rate of 39.5%?
    8. Did you move to Catalina?
    10. Considering that there are food lines now, that's somewhat baffling.
    12. I'm not talking about 50 advisors in Uganda here. More like tens of thousands throughout the continent.
    15. Already happening. Kind of a chicken shit "prediction."
    17. Does "muddle through" mean we become Japan 2.0?
    18. Don't be a wuss. If you want to play the game, you should predict who will win, not who won't.

    We have plenty of time to talk about stakes. We have four years, after all.
  • Franklyn Adams 17. Yes, i believe we are on the way to being Japan 2.0. 12. Not going to happen. 18. Chris Christie. 10. Really? Like this? 7. Yes. 4. Yes. I'm open to use labor participation rate - will creep above 64%. 3. yes typo. Should have been a 2 in first digit. 6. CPI.

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