Thursday, February 21, 2008
37 down - 11 to go
there's a certain satisfaction knowing that Bush has less than 1 year left in office. all of the focus now is on the next president & outside of a FISA extension, there's really no more damage he can do.
Metrics:
Fiscal: It's very obvious now that I did not do a good job creating a SMART metric for deficits. "Deficit: Keep the promise of cutting the deficit in half ($220B)" , but no mention of whether that's anytime during his presidency or at the end. Also, absolute dollars are a poor unit of measure. In hindsight, I should have used % GDP (accepted standard) and specified either the year or made an additional requirement. FY '07 the deficit was below $200B, but next year, the projections are all that it will burst up above $400B or about back to its height under Bush (nominal dollars nor % GDP). By the letter of the law, Bush meets this criterion.
Iraq: The death toll appears to be steady state 30-40 and I would expect it to stay their until the point that we start withdrawing sizable numbers of troops. My actual prediction if Hillary/Obama wins is that ½ the troops will be out within 2 years, but not much more than that.
Wagers: I was quite worried that I would lose my first ever political wager - Hillary winning the nomination. Today, I'd give Obama 3:2 odds that he'll win the nomination, so feeling much better about that prediction. Looks like my statement Now Hillary has snared the nomination months before Iowa, over 1 year before the election itself. Obama has shown his lack of seasoning has proven to be fallacious. Clearly Hillary did not snare the nomination that early and in the GOP, McCain, for all practical purposes, locked up the nomination, a bit after Bush did in '88. I am surprised/impressed that Obama with <4>
Metrics:
Fiscal: It's very obvious now that I did not do a good job creating a SMART metric for deficits. "Deficit: Keep the promise of cutting the deficit in half ($220B)" , but no mention of whether that's anytime during his presidency or at the end. Also, absolute dollars are a poor unit of measure. In hindsight, I should have used % GDP (accepted standard) and specified either the year or made an additional requirement. FY '07 the deficit was below $200B, but next year, the projections are all that it will burst up above $400B or about back to its height under Bush (nominal dollars nor % GDP). By the letter of the law, Bush meets this criterion.
Iraq: The death toll appears to be steady state 30-40 and I would expect it to stay their until the point that we start withdrawing sizable numbers of troops. My actual prediction if Hillary/Obama wins is that ½ the troops will be out within 2 years, but not much more than that.
Wagers: I was quite worried that I would lose my first ever political wager - Hillary winning the nomination. Today, I'd give Obama 3:2 odds that he'll win the nomination, so feeling much better about that prediction. Looks like my statement Now Hillary has snared the nomination months before Iowa, over 1 year before the election itself. Obama has shown his lack of seasoning has proven to be fallacious. Clearly Hillary did not snare the nomination that early and in the GOP, McCain, for all practical purposes, locked up the nomination, a bit after Bush did in '88. I am surprised/impressed that Obama with <4>
Labels: monthly update
