Thursday, October 20, 2005
9 down - 39 to go
Bush's lame duckism continues to amaze. The best line I've read recently was in today's WSJ in an article concerning Bush's failure at "reforming" Social Security from a GOP Senator - what would it take to restart the Social Security reform effort? "Get our troops out of Iraq and rebuild New Orleans".
What's funny though, is the real 1-2 punch that put Bush down were Hurricane Katrina and his nomination of Miers - certainly items that could never have been predicted when he took office. Personally no strong feelings about Miers, but the conservatives have some fantasy that if they just get one more Supreme Court nominee, then somehow....Roe v. Wade would go away? That Brown v. Board of Education would be repealed? I'm really not sure what conservatives expect beyond some vague belief that all might be right with the world. Still not sure how much of that belief is just GOP manipulation of their core supporters; but you'd think after having the presidency for 7 of the last 10 terms, they'd know that the judiciary just can't go that much farther right. 7 of 9 Supremes are GOP nominees. Read that 2/3 of appellate judges are GOP nominees, so I'm gobsmacked when reading that the left is afraid of losing control of the judicial branch. Sorry guys, but that "control" was & is just a fiction.
Back to metrics:
What's funny though, is the real 1-2 punch that put Bush down were Hurricane Katrina and his nomination of Miers - certainly items that could never have been predicted when he took office. Personally no strong feelings about Miers, but the conservatives have some fantasy that if they just get one more Supreme Court nominee, then somehow....Roe v. Wade would go away? That Brown v. Board of Education would be repealed? I'm really not sure what conservatives expect beyond some vague belief that all might be right with the world. Still not sure how much of that belief is just GOP manipulation of their core supporters; but you'd think after having the presidency for 7 of the last 10 terms, they'd know that the judiciary just can't go that much farther right. 7 of 9 Supremes are GOP nominees. Read that 2/3 of appellate judges are GOP nominees, so I'm gobsmacked when reading that the left is afraid of losing control of the judicial branch. Sorry guys, but that "control" was & is just a fiction.
Back to metrics:
- For deficit reduction, the GOP fiscal conservatives are making some noises, but given how entrenched the desire to purchase re-election is by the present GOP incumbents, I have no reason to believe that the current attention on budget cutting is more than an ephemeral interlude before "business as usual" returns again.
- For trade, the discussions of Doha are very muted, and clearly Bush lacks the capital needed to gain support for cutting farm subsidies. Sometimes I wonder why he bothered obtaining "fast track" approval for trade deals when his actions have been so protectionist.
- Iraq death toll continues. While last month's death toll looked to be quite low during my last entry, September's death toll nearly doubled in the final 10 days of the month to end at 49. October's US death toll is already 55 with 10 days still to go in the month, so we should hit the 2,000 mark before the month runs out. The military/police death toll for Iraqis continues to be above 200/month (what's reported). The recent vote had none of the hoopla & hope that last January's vote generated - sometimes it's hard to remember what was the purpose of each vote (interim government & interim interim constitution?). Inertia will keep us in Iraq for the rest of Bush's term, but given that we "transferred sovereignty" back on June 28th, 2004 - nearly 16 months ago, and conducted two elections in 1 year, what can folks realistically hope to change in the next 3+ years? If they're expecting Iraq to export more oil or the violence to decrease to any noticeable degree, they're being willfully blind. The next US presidential candidates will have no choice but to run on some "peace with honor" platform, but I expect little to change in troop levels or deaths for Iraqis or US soldiers between now & when the next president takes office. Oh, one other item just struck me - haven't heard much mention of Zarqawi for sometime now. Did we become convinced that he really plays a minor role in the ongoing violence in Iraq?
Wagers?
- OBL is still at large & no draft on the horizon.
- As discussed above, I have few doubts that our troops levels will decrease below 50,000 by the end of Bush's presidency. Actually in one way, with Bush's domestic weakness, I expect him to fight that much more tenaciously to hold onto control of Iraq to make sure that it doesn't fail on his watch.
- Have read little about future presidential candidates recently positioning themselves for a run. Can only guess that next year's election are currently looming larger to folks as they draw closer. Can hope that the Dems will unseat Santorum and pick up 3-4 Senate seats. If they believe that they can pick up control, they're delusional - stick to realistic goals & the Dems will do o.k. in the upcoming election. Shoot for majority status in 2-3 elections, and don't entertain fanciful notions.
