non-ecumenical ramblings

Well Bush's 2nd term isn't exactly speeding along, but it's far less less worse than his first term than I could have imagined. Obviously Katrina relief will dominate for the next couple of months & then what? Bush's momentum was all but dead & now cannot see any hope of restarting it, so no fears that any momentous legislation will be passed by Bush this term (i.e. no more drug give-aways or Iraq wars).

Getting back to my usual metrics:

• Deficit - obviously Katrina is going to blow away any hope that the deficit could have ever been lowered to 1.8% of GDP. There's actually some sense from some folks wanting to give back pork from the recent highway porkfest, but folks like Don Young are of course opposed to such fiscal prudency.
• Trade - CAFTA passed by the skin of its teeth, and I can't even recall the last time I heard any serious mention of the Doha Round. Bush's approach now is to buy back votes, so cutting farm subsidies is even more of a dead issue.
• Iraq - this month's US death toll looks to be around 30 which is the lowest since last March. Of course right after that, the death toll quickly climbed back up to the 70's two months later. I'll predict now that each nominee & most major candidates for the next presidency will propose some type of exit strategy. By the campaign we'll have been in Iraq for 5 years and the US populace will accept any reasonable "peace with honor" proposed by a candidate. It is amazing that the WSJ editorial could even attempt a "turn the corner" column a week ago because Kurdish troops led the assault on some insurgent haven. Are they in that much denial?

Wagers:

• Iraq troops. Despite the talk of troop draw downs, I know Iraq is too important to Bush for his legacy (despite his claims that he doesn't care about history) for him to pull out massive numbers while still in office, so feeling more confident about my 50,000 troop wager.
• OBL - hardly worth updating. We're neither looking nor finding him.
• Draft - hardly worth updating. Bush political capital is mostly spent, so clearly he lacks the motivation or ability to reinstitute the draft.
• Hillary vs. Warner. No movement on this front. A key sign will be Hillary's campaign next year. Will she be forced to make some "I am not running for President" comment by her competitor? Right now any prospective candidate is keeping a very low profile watching the internecine fighting within the GOP. Certainly enjoyable reading Michelle Malkin bash Bush's latest pick for DHS underling, but still disappointing that I hear so little of a proposed legislative agenda from the Dems. Can understand that the GOP will never let anything pass that is a Dem priority, but create some "Contract with the other America" that will become your next party platform. Sigh.

Well, feels good to be back blogging again.