non-ecumenical ramblings

Continuing in my 48 month series - Bush's lost momentum is still the dominant meme. What stands out now is how Bush is fighting defensive battles, e.g. Bolton nomination or funding stem cells, and clearly has not been setting the agenda since his Social Security privatization plan failed to gain traction.

Updating my metrics to judge Bush:

• Trade - CAFTA has more momentum now so perhaps it will be approved. The improvements in our sugar policy would be very minor, but the sugar industry worries that it would be a crack in the dyke - here's hoping they're right.
• Deficit - The current estimates are $370B which would mean a decrease to roughly 3.0% of GDP which would be a substantial improvement over last year's 3.5%.
• Iraq - the death toll increased to 80 last month & this month there are already 58 deaths which means roughly the same. For deaths of Iraqi police/military, their death toll has increased from 200/month and looks to be roughly 300 this month. What has stood out of course is the calls from Republicans like Walter "freedom fries" Jones sponsoring a resolution to leave Iraq. Even though it's only 2005, I am curious how presidential candidates will deal with Iraq in 2008 (shades of 1968). Will someone imply that he has a "secret plan" (to be fair to Nixon, he never actually used that term though I doubt that was sorry about the inference). Will anyone propose an exit strategy? I doubt that anyone will give a departure date, but given that our death toll will be roughly 4,000 by the presidential campaign I'm guessing that some candidate will push hard for Iraq to take over their security & some implicit "declare victory & get the hell out" approach, though no one will ever repeat McGovern's "I will halt a senseless bombing of Indochina on Inaugural Day....And within 90 days of my inauguration, every American soldier and every American prisoner will be out of the jungle and out of their cells and then home in America where they belong."
  
  Wagers:
• 2 wagers that OBL will not be caught: still extremely safe despite any nebulous comments from Porter Goss. Don't believe that we've made a serious effort since Operation Anaconda over three years ago.
• 1 wager that the draft will not be renewed: still extremely safe. Any politician worth his salt knows how "The politics of the draft are radioactive." Must be a sign of the times that my sister would even make such a wager. Will expect the number of mercenaries to stay in the current range 15-20,000 range (not well publicized, so best guess).
• 1 wager that our troop level in Iraq will not go below 50,000 (feeling alot safer so will upgrade to 10:1). Since Cheney & Goss are obviously delusional about the last throes of the insurgency, what options does that leave Bush? If there's no exit strategy and a steady supply of Saudi & Syrian insurgents & a pissed off local populace pissed off by the Green Republic then there's no realistic way for Bush to withdraw troops much below 75,000.
• Mark Warner vs. Hillary. No updates. Hillary still gets most of the news & bashing from the right. Still hoping that the Dems will nominate a Southern or Western governor (i.e. Richardson, Warner or Bredesen).