non-ecumenical ramblings

Continuing in my 48 month series, little has changed since last month's update on Bush including his lost momentum - what stands out is how infrequently Bush is on the front page of the WSJ or NYT these days.

The hot issue of the day is the upcoming Senate "nuclear option", which may prove a reality within a month, but seems driven by Frist & outside groups - Bush seems more of a passenger on this ride. True, he would gain approval for 7 appellate court judges, but he still seems a passive participant in the whole affair instead of the leader.

Back to updating my metrics to judge Bush:

• Trade - CAFTA appears to be an iffy proposition. Personally I would love to see sugar subsidies reduced even if it's "only minor but precedent-setting relaxation of U.S. sugar protectionism". Still, given the hassles to approve the relatively minor CAFTA agreement, and how our trade deficit with China is such a hot button, I can't seen Portman gaining approval for Doha Round, so "negotiations are lagging" appears to be an understatement.
• Deficit - the most recent massive pork barrel appropriation is this month's $295,000,000,000 highway bill. Perhaps it will be negotiated down to $284B in conference, but doubt that Bush will veto regardless of final tally & certain that it will contain some outlandish expenditures such as a $1.5M bus stop in Alaska.
• Iraq - the death toll increased back to 52 last month & this month will likely end up higher. For deaths of Iraqi police/military, it still appears that their deaths are a steady-state of 200/month. Iraq does feel like some type of horrible stasis for all involved.
  
  Wagers:
• 2 wagers that OBL will not be caught: still very safe so will upgrade to 10,000,000:1. As far as I can tell, we're no longer looking for him.
• 1 wager that the draft will not be renewed: still extremely safe so will upgrade to 500,000:1. Bush knows how much political capital a draft would eat up, so he will never even seriously broach the topic.
• 1 wager that our troop level in Iraq will not go below 50,000 (feeling a bit safer so will upgrade to 5:2). Given the deaths of Iraq & US military, I can't see our troops lessening anytime soon.
• Mark Warner vs. Hillary. No updates. Even money at best, though clearly Warner is testing the waters.
  
  A bit spent from attending today's Long Beach's gay pride parade (not as impressive as San Franciso's, but still a nice atmosphere, so will sign off & let the Ginger Haired Yank back on her PC.