non-ecumenical ramblings

Well that 1st month wasn't that bad was it? The tort reform passed was no hot button for me and would guess that passing some privatized Social Security will be the key battle of Bush's 2nd term - tax reform won't happen.

Thought I'd keep a running odds update of my wagers for the end of Bush's presidency.

• 2 wagers that OBL will not be caught (pretty safe - 1,000:1)
• 1 wager that the draft will not be renewed (extremely safe - 10,000:1)
• 1 wager that our troop level in Iraq will not go below 45,001 (least safe - 3:2)

Also have a wager that Mark Warner instead of Hillary will win the Dem nomination. Feeling less safe on that one as Hillary is clearly the front runner today, though I've certainly seen Dem front runners destruct far easier than first imagined - Muskie & Dean coming to mind.

I have toyed with finding an on-line wager on political events. Have not lost a political wager, but the stakes have all been quite small. Would think that catching OBL would be a popular wager, but would not imagine the other two being listed.

For my standards to judge Bush's 2nd term:

• Doha round has no buzz about it at all (500:1)
• No way in hell the deficit is going down to 1.8% of GDP (100,000:1)
• Death toll in Iraq will be about 50 this month - could possibly see it going below 20/month in a few years, but not for the rest of calendar 2005 (3:2)