Monday, January 21, 2008

3 down - 1 to go

Bush's second term has actually gone by quite quickly, perhaps he has that same feeling. So now we're left with:
  1. How many troops will be left in Iraq at the end of his term (125k would be my guess today & of course our mercenaries).
  2. How strong will the recession be and will the stimuli make much difference?

Given that my 401k is taking a beating now, I would hope for some effective lifeline, but the world markets are still tanking. Historically when the economy is doing poorly (80, 92) or iffy (00) the incumbent party loses. Will predict that if a recession has hit/is hitting/is about to hit then history will hold course given that the past 2 recessions were followed by 2 year jobless recoveries.

My only hesitation in that prediction concerns whether the US electorate will actually elect a non-white male. England & Germany have both elected a female, but for whatever reasons the closest we've come is Ferraro's nomination as VP in one of the greatest electoral routs in our history.

Otherwise, this past month Bush has been low key. I know I know there was the trip to the Mideast but that was clearly a nothing burger from the start, but the focus has clearly left him & now that he's trying supply-side Keynesian ism again, he needs the Dems.


Oh, honesty compels me to point out that the deficit was $163B for FY 2007, so Bush clearly met that goal.

Iraq - US military death toll remains <40/month>

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