Sunday, December 24, 2006
23 down - 25 to go
Given how little has happened & how little will happen for the remainder of Bush's term, it's hard to get motivated to provide updates. Still curious how much the Dems challenge Bush once in power - will they really push to overturn the Military Commissions Act of 2006? Would love to believe it. Will they push for lobbying reform? So far happy that Murtha was not elected Majority Leader & Hastings was not made head of the Intelligence committee, so some hope for them. Now if they would only push for legalization of Medical Marijuana.
Metrics
Iraq - will continue to fester, but Bush is clearly a "stay-the-course" kinda guy, so expect many more death tolls such as this month's 80 to date. Does put a bit of lie to the conservative's talking point that the death toll in October was high because the insurgents were trying to influence the election. This month the toll will be nearly as high as it was in October. Obviously there are no good options at this point, but the best bad option - referendum on our withdrawal, followed by our withdrawal - will not happen under Bush.
Trade & Deficit - nothing of note this past month. Doha is still dead & our deficit for this year isn't bad by historical standards, but our implicit debt is quite high.
Wagers
Well i'm getting very close to win my first long term one on Harry Potter - wagered that his parents are not alive (odd wager on OCWD's part, but the stakes are dinner for 4 at winner's restaurant of choice, so why complain.
OBL no closer to being caught.
Israel vs. Iran - despite the bluster & sanctions, I can't see Israel attacking Iran in the next 7 years.
Kurdistan becoming a country in the next 4+ years. Could see it happening eventually, but too many higher priorities for Iraq, or ex-Iraq.
Hillary? Would have to make her the odds on favorite, so that is my weakest wager, especially since Warner dropped out.
Metrics
Iraq - will continue to fester, but Bush is clearly a "stay-the-course" kinda guy, so expect many more death tolls such as this month's 80 to date. Does put a bit of lie to the conservative's talking point that the death toll in October was high because the insurgents were trying to influence the election. This month the toll will be nearly as high as it was in October. Obviously there are no good options at this point, but the best bad option - referendum on our withdrawal, followed by our withdrawal - will not happen under Bush.
Trade & Deficit - nothing of note this past month. Doha is still dead & our deficit for this year isn't bad by historical standards, but our implicit debt is quite high.
Wagers
Well i'm getting very close to win my first long term one on Harry Potter - wagered that his parents are not alive (odd wager on OCWD's part, but the stakes are dinner for 4 at winner's restaurant of choice, so why complain.
OBL no closer to being caught.
Israel vs. Iran - despite the bluster & sanctions, I can't see Israel attacking Iran in the next 7 years.
Kurdistan becoming a country in the next 4+ years. Could see it happening eventually, but too many higher priorities for Iraq, or ex-Iraq.
Hillary? Would have to make her the odds on favorite, so that is my weakest wager, especially since Warner dropped out.
