Sunday, August 20, 2006
19 down - 29 to go
The mini-war in Lebanon has been the dominant news item for the past month, and the consensus opinions are that Hezbollah has won the political war by holding their own against Israel, and that it's a proxy war for Iran vs. USA. The neo-cons aren't happy about the results, but there's no chance the US is going to war with Iran in the foreseeable future (actually i know have 2 wagers that Israel will not go to war with Iran by January 20th, 2013).
Monthly metric updates:
- Given that more troop are moving into Baghdad, my wager on troop strength (>50,000 on January 20th, 2009) is secure. The daily carnage in Iraq makes clear that Iraq is in a low level civil war that will not end for years.
- The Doha Round ended with a whimper. I can't see any hope of it being resuscitated for years, so Bush failed the test on trade. Outside of bi-lateral or regional arrangements "a poor substitute for global progress" there will be no progress on free trade for at least the next 4 years.
- No updates on the deficit. Expect it to be in the $300B range for this fiscal year & the official results won't be long in coming.
Of my wagers (I also added a gimme that Kurdistan would not be recognized by the UN by August 4th, 2011), only my support of Warner is questionable. Not that he's looking bad - I would probably put him in 2nd place now - but his name recognition still isn't that high. Could be that Feingold will garner the Lamont vote, so not sure what constituency that would leave for Warner.
This portion of Bush's presidency does seem like the dog days of summer for the Kansas City Royals - it has to be played out, but provides little satisfaction for fans or players.